Zulum’s Shettima Problem
By Shuaib I. Shuaib
It’s obvious. Governor Babagana Zulum is determined to install his preferred choice as the next governor of Borno State, knowing full well that Vice President Kashim Shettima has someone else in mind. Going by media reports, Zulum has settled on his Commissioner of Education, Engr. Lawan Walkibe, while the vice president reportedly has a preference for the Minister of Agriculture, Abubakar Kyari. In any other circumstance, at least out of loyalty and courtesy, the honour to nominate who the next governor of the state should be would go to Shettima. First, he brought Zulum to limelight after naming him Rector of Ramat Polytechnic in 2011. Four years later, Shettima made him Commissioner for Reconstruction, Rehabilitation and Resettlement. That’s where Shettima noticed his energy and ability to get things done. Eventually, Zulum succeeded Shettima as governor in 2019.
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But their journey together does not end there, because the next time around, it was the whole country that would take notice of Zulum; just in time for a presidential election. The 2023 presidential election.
Long before President Bola Ahmed Tinubu made his public declaration to contest for the nation’s highest office, in January 2022, his name had been repeatedly floated as President Muhammadu Buhari’s likely successor. Who was suggesting his name was however just as important as the consistency at which it was brought up. That is because not everybody within Buhari’s inner circle was in favour of a Tinubu presidency. One exception was Senator Abu Ibrahim representing Katsina South in the National Assembly. He was not only a close confidante of the then president, Abu Ibrahim was Buhari’s man in the Senate. So when he proposed Tinubu as Buhari’s successor months before the election season kicked off, the media, politicians, power brokers and all stakeholders paid attention. But the senator went further than promoting Tinubu. He suggested Governor Babagana Zulum as a possible running mate.
In February 1976, shortly after the assassination of Nigeria’s Head of State, Gen. Murtala Mohammed, Maj. Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo was chosen to lead the country. It was in a time crisis. The attempted coup was blamed on officers from minority ethnic groups from the northern part of the country. In its aftermath, Maj. Gen. Theophilus Danjuma was offered the position of Chief of Staff, Supreme Military Headquarters, he apparently turned it down in order not to upset the religious balance in the country. In his place, Colonel Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, the son of a first republic federal minister and a Katsina power broker, was named second in command in the military government.
That gesture from Danjuma and the elevation of Yar’Adua would shape their relationship for the next two decades. And for even longer, it set the precedent, the criteria and conditions for selecting presidential candidates and their running mates. Regional and religious considerations, and sometimes heritage have had to play a role in the selection process. The heritage parts is one reason politicians crave traditional titles and would give up an arm and a leg just to be named Waziri, Talba or Turaki . A not-so similar scenario like the one Danjuma found himself in played a decade earlier. It was after two successive coup attempts in 1966 claiming the lives of the country’s founding leaders and top military officers. Saddled with the responsibility of cleaning up the mess, the individuals at the helm of affairs, including Danjuma himself, weren’t so reconciliatory. The result was a two and a half-year civil war. In that sense, Danjuma in 1976, sacrificed his own ‘ambitions’ for the country, for the north, the military as an institution and also to protect the place of minority tribes. Still, a claim could be made that Danjuma lacked the killer instinct to grab the opportunity, come what may. Or he just wasn’t a politician with the mountain-size ego, the overflowing ambition and the willingness to let the country burn for his sake.
In 2022, after Tinubu clinched the APC presidential ticket, it was no surprise when the first name on his lips was Babagana Zulum. Abu Ibrahim had already planted the seed. At the same time, Kashim Shettima, one of the earliest converts to the Tinubu campaign, wanted the nomination and was sticking to the former Lagos governor like a leech. The choice was between him and Zulum though some sitting governors in the Northwest were also lobbying Tinubu for it. Yet, at least one person was expected to reject it. But is there really any ‘politician’ in Nigeria today that would make that kind of sacrifice? Which politician would be nominated to be vice president on the ticket of the ruling party and turn it down? Is there any circumstance that a politician is obliged to turn down such an offer out of courtesy and loyalty to a mentor who also wanted it. Well, that is exactly what Zulum did in 2022. The ticket had been offered to him by Tinubu. He refused to accept it unless he had Shettima’s consent. And as it turned out, Shettima was not molded in the character of T Y Danjuma.
That brings us back to the present moment. Zulum, who is completing his second term in office, just sacked his entire cabinet. A clear sign that he is pushing ahead with his choice for governor. Not all of the commissioners have political ambitions. But sacking them all provides political cover to the governor and particularly to Wakilbe to openly launch a campaign without seeming out of step with other political appointees. A second message Zulum is sending out to Shettima is that, ‘By conceding the vice presidency, I have paid you back for your favours ten folds. I won’t make a second sacrifice’. The question now is who should have the privilege of nominating the candidate of the APC and likely next governor of Borno, Shettima or Zulum? Who should be the one to make the sacrifice? And what happens if they both can’t come to an understanding? Shettima is barely 60. He still has a shot a the presidency in the years to come. So he has the most to lose from a divided house. That alone is enough of a reason to keep his team from fracturing before that the game even begins. Besides, his own fate as vice president is not exactly in his hands.
In just three years of being president, Bola Tinubu is already remaking Nigeria in his image, in terms of governance, his idea of fairness and justice, power structure and maybe the most impactful, politics. In every aspects, Nigeria’s laws are being rewritten to meet the social and political aspirations of the president. Though the presidency hasn’t gotten round to amending the 1999 Constitution, we have seen this trend in the tax laws and the newly signed 2026 Electoral Act. The most contentious aspect has been the issue of electronic transmission of election results, which was made mandatory but at the same time could easily be discarded depending on telecommunication services. But just as significant is Section 84(2) of the Electoral Act, which restricts the process of nominating candidates by political parties to direct primaries or by consensus. The concept of consensus is almost synonymous with Tinubu and his political family in Lagos. Even in free and transparent processes, aspirants look for loop holes, ways to cheat and challenge outcomes in court hoping to snatch the party ticket by hook or crook. Coming to a consensus and getting aspirants to accept it under this atmosphere would be tantamount to passing a camel through the eye of a needle. That is unless you are Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Through every election cycle and in the nearly three decades the president has presided over the political affairs of Lagos and parts of the wider South West region, he has handpicked who gets every single party ticket for the state assembly seats in Lagos. In every constituency, the president has picked who gets the ticket for the House of Representatives, Senate and governorship ticket. That is what consensus means to the presidency. That is what the 2026 Electoral Act and the present structure of the ruling APC envision. It could prove disastrous for opposition parties where there isn’t a single individual to dictate outcomes.
But it also isn’t necessarily what APC’s 31 governors across the north and south have planned for in selecting flag bearers across every constituency in their respective states. So, many governors still think they will decide who gets what. It is under these circumstances that Shettima wants a say in who becomes the APC governorship flag bearer in Borno. And Zulum wants the freedom and space to decide. Both the vice president and the governor have apparently not paid attention to how the political structure in Lagos was built. They haven’t gotten the latest memo from APC. Tinibu may consult them, ask for their preferences, but ultimately, he will have the final say.
Shuaib writes from Abuja.
