Ganye bye-election: A litmus test of supremacy between Fintiri, Ribadu?
By Mohd Ismail
No doubt the upcoming state constituency bye-election in Ganye will serve as an appetizer before the main course is served in 2027. It promises to be a spectacle that will shape and define who gets what in the next round of general elections in the state.
Bookmakers are of the opinion that the bye-election will mark a watershed in Adamawa’s contemporary political history and may serve as a pointer that will determine who owns Adamawa State come 2027 general elections.
Related news
Adamawa APC org sec, Ribadu expresses deep joy over emergence of Yilwatda as nat’l chair
Adamawa APC debunks reported endorsement of Tinubu, Ribadu
Who is afraid of Mallam Nuhu Ribadu?
Conversely, it will mark the relevance of the personalities behind the two major rival political parties in the state led by dominant political forces.
On one hand, APC is being led by Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, the renowned anti graft czar; a fearless fighter whose phenomenal success in slaying the monster of corruption asserts him as impregnable contender in any contest.
On the other hand, the PDP is led by governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri, who has successfully weathered the storm to become a two time governor slaying the incumbency factor in 2019 and overcoming the bludgeoning Binani armageddon in 2023. Such renowned feats made him an invincible political force to contend with in any election.
However, many factors will play crucial role in determining which party carries the day in the decisive polls which is seen as a make or mar for the two contending dominant political parties in the state.
A victory for the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the election will assure President Bola Ahmed Tinubu that one of his most trusted allies and Nigeria’s National Security Adviser (NSA) is at home with his people, especially in consideration of the fact that Ganye State constituency is a known redoubt and enclave of former vice president Atiku Abubakar, Tinubu’s fiercest rival in the 2023 general election who is set to challenge him again in 2027 on the crest of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
A victory for Fintiri in the election which is his major electoral litmus test, will signal that the governor enjoys a grassroot appeal and tremendous goodwill of the people anchored on his developmental agenda and policy direction.
Because of the dynamism of Nigerian politics, factors that play crucial roles in the governor’s decisive victory against his main rival and APC candidate, Sen. Aishatu Dahiru Binani in 2023 may work against him this time around. Based on that thinking, analysts are of the opinion that despite holding the reins of power, Fintiri is set to walk a tight rope in the election as support, and success, will no more come on a platter of gold.
In the build up to the 2023, a number of factors have conspired to push Fintiri to the Dougirei government house Yola including the support he got from powerful elements and elites in the rival APC including black-cap, a major support group of Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, the former vice president Atiku Abubakar as well as the support of the wife of immediate past president, Aisha Buhari. As it is now, most or all of these forces will work against Fintiri’s victory in the coming bye-election.
It is believed that Fintiri’s phyrric victory in 2023 despite the huge support he got from members of rival political party against the backdrop that he will not enjoy such support now as well as that of former vice president Atiku Abubakar may signal that his ubiquitous and phenomenal luck may desert him this time, rendering him a ranking political eunuch.
As preparations for the Saturday bye-election gain momentum, APC has through its body language shown an overzealous readiness not to allow PDP to get away with the coveted prize considering that Ganye constituency, is a known APC stronghold.
Despite APC’s lost of fortunes in the last election which saw the party shedding significant weight and appeal, the party has somewhat ensured that it has maintained a tight hold on Ganye constituency against all odds. So in that respect, the party is set to win the election as losing it is akin to losing its soul.
To underscore its determination to win the bye-election, APC has set up a high-powered national campaign council led by Uba Maigari Ahmadu, minister of State for regional development.
The committee also consists of other high ranking members of the party including the immediate past SGF Boss Mustapha, former governor Bala James Nggilari, serving and former senators, serving and former members of house of representatives and other respected political heavyweights.
But while APC has made such a powerful statement, PDP which is inundated by intractable challenges at the national level has at best maintained a somnolent disposition. The only known effort made by governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri towards winning the polls was the launch of the campaign train penultimate week. As it is, this paper learnt that the governor has jetted outside the country and will not be back until the election is over.
But apart from the above factors, analysts posited that being the governor in his sixth year on the saddle of power, Fintiri knows the political turf too well to be frightened by the APC’s gangling juggernaut since he has defeated the party in more consequential elections in the past.
As a governor with local government chairmen, commissioners and a retinue of political aides and associates at his beck and call, it is believed that unlike the APC, who has to set up a committee, Fintiri’s political dominion is a settled issue and can perform political miracles whenever the need arises. It is therefore, a fatal mistake for one to dismiss the governor’s preparation based on what appears in the limelight. In addition, the governor enjoys the incumbency factor as well as a huge war chest which is vital for the success of every election in Nigeria.
On the other hand, APC will also enjoy incumbency factor being the party controlling the levers of power at the center. It is believed that in the context of Nigerian election, factors such as control over the state apparatus of coercion and the electoral body may come handy in dire situations.
Atiku and Binani factors may also play silent roles in making or marring the chances of the two dominant political parties. Both Atiku and Binani who are stalwarts of the ADC do not have direct interest in the election since their party did not present a candidate.
It is an open secret that despite his stout support of Fintiri’s second term ambition, relationship between Atiku and Fintiri has irretrievably dissipated a long time due to divergent political interests at the national level.
The underlying politics behind their spat is the fact that Fintiri is aligned to the political interests of former governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State who mobilized five PDP governors to work against the presidential ambition of Atiku Abubakar in the lead to the 2023 election. Immediately after the 2023 election, it became glaring that Fintiri is more aligned to Wike, Atiku’s arch enemy and since one person cannot serve two masters at the same time, Atiku has to let Fintiri go.
But inside sources close to the former vice president noted that because of Fintiri’s many transgressions, Atiku’s allies in PDP will also pay back Fintiri in his own coins by siding with APC in the coming election. Whether that support will prove helpful to APC remains a matter of time.
On the other hand, political associates of Binani in APC are also expected to sabotage their party to avenge the betrayal which their benefactor suffered in 2023. They are expected to tow the interests of PDP in the coming election. But as permutations and calculations evolve ahead of the bye-election, one thing that remains constant is that a lot of underground maneuverings and political brinkmanship will ensue as the rat race for the coveted prize continue.
